@InProceedings{FonsecaAATAASA:2019:FuFiPr,
               author = "Fonseca, Marisa G. and Alves, Lincoln Muniz and Aguiar, Ana Paula 
                         Dutra and Tejada, Graciela and Arai, Egidio and Anderson, Liana O. 
                         and Shimabukuro, Yosio Edemir and Arag{\~a}o, Luiz Eduardo 
                         Oliveira e Cruz de",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais 
                         (INPE)} and {Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de 
                         Desastres Naturais (CEMADEN)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais 
                         (INPE)}",
                title = "Future fire probability in the Amazon under climate and land-use 
                         change",
            booktitle = "Anais...",
                 year = "2019",
               editor = "Gherardi, Douglas Francisco Marcolino and Sanches, Ieda DelArco 
                         and Arag{\~a}o, Luiz Eduardo Oliveira e Cruz de",
                pages = "943--946",
         organization = "Simp{\'o}sio Brasileiro de Sensoriamento Remoto, 19. (SBSR)",
            publisher = "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)",
              address = "S{\~a}o Jos{\'e} dos Campos",
             keywords = "Fire modeling, Hot pixels, Maximum Entropy, Tropical forest.",
             abstract = "Climate and land-use changes are expected to influence future fire 
                         regime in the Amazon. We combined regional land-use projections 
                         and climatic data from the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble to 
                         investigate the probability of fire occurrence by the end of the 
                         21st century (2071-2100) in the Brazilian and Bolivian Amazon. 
                         Under the RCP 8.5 emission scenario combined with a land-use 
                         scenario based on the depletion of natural resources, the area 
                         with fire relative probability (FRP) \≥ 0.3 (a threshold 
                         chosen based on the literature) increases by 54%. Areas with a 
                         negative change in FRP are projected in the South and 
                         South-eastern of both Brazilian and Bolivian Amazon, but only 10% 
                         of the study area shows a decrease in FRP \≥ 0.3. The 
                         projected overall increase in FRP in the Amazon will likely 
                         threaten its inhabitants health, livelihood and important 
                         ecosystems services, including the regions' biodiversity and 
                         carbon stocks.",
  conference-location = "Santos",
      conference-year = "14-17 abril 2019",
                 isbn = "978-85-17-00097-3",
             language = "pt",
         organisation = "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)",
                  ibi = "8JMKD3MGP6W34M/3U62PGL",
                  url = "http://urlib.net/ibi/8JMKD3MGP6W34M/3U62PGL",
           targetfile = "97648.pdf",
                 type = "Monitoramento e modelagem ambiental",
        urlaccessdate = "27 abr. 2024"
}